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New York Fed: Short-term inflation expectations hit series low in October

Written by Jasir Jawaid

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that median inflation expectations in October decreased by 0.2 of a percentage point to 2.3% at the one-year horizon, the lowest level since the start of the series in June 2013.

The decline in one-year-ahead inflation expectations was most pronounced for respondents above age 40 and those with household incomes above $50,000. Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.4%, also a series low.

Median expected change in home prices rose to 2.9% in October after reaching a series low of 2.8% in September.

The median one-year-ahead expected change in medical care prices decreased by 0.7 of a percentage point to 6.3%, while the expected change in food prices fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.1%.

By comparison, the median one-year-ahead expected cost of college education increased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% in October, and the expected cost of rent increased by 0.3 percentage point to 5.4%, barely above its trailing 12- month average of 5.3%.

Household income and spending growth expectations remained stable.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence on the S&P Capital IQ Pro platform.


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